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IJID Regions

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match IJID Regions's content profile, based on 11 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Deceased-donor kidney transplantation in Brazil, 2014-2024: temporal patterns, regional heterogeneity, and donation-context indicators.

Convento, M. B.; Borges, F. T.

2026-06-29 nephrology 10.64898/2026.06.26.26356660 medRxiv
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Background: Deceased-donor kidney transplantation is a component of the Brazilian transplant system and takes place within a deceased-donation environment that in-cludes donor identification, notification, family approach and authorization, organ allocation, and logistics. This study described temporal, macroregional, and federative unit-level variation in deceased-donor kidney transplantation in Brazil from 2014 to 2024, together with hospitalization-based indicators and contextual indicators of the deceased-donation environment. Methods: This nationwide descriptive time-series study used publicly available secondary data from the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System (SIH/SUS), the Brazilian Transplant Registry (RBT/ABTO), and the Brazilian National Transplant System (SNT). Indicators includ-ed the number of transplants, transplant rates per million population, kidney transplant waiting list stock, mean length of hospital stay, in-hospital mortality, potential donor notifications, and family interview and refusal proportions. The three databases were analyzed separately and in parallel, without linkage. Results: The annual number of deceased-donor kidney transplants increased over the study period. The kidney trans-plant waiting list stock also increased. Mean length of hospital stay decreased, and in-hospital mortality decreased over time. Marked macroregional and federative unit-level heterogeneity was observed in transplant activity, hospitalization-based indica-tors, and contextual indicators of the deceased-donation environment. Conclusions: Deceased-donor kidney transplantation increased in Brazil between 2014 and 2024, although regional disparities persisted. These findings support monitoring strategies that incorporate contextual indicators alongside measures of transplant activity. Be-cause this was a descriptive study based on secondary data from distinct sources, the findings should not be interpreted as evidence of causal relationships.

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Ketotifen for Moderate-to-Severe Uremic Pruritus in Chronic Dialysis Patients: A Prospective Observational Study

Mohanraj, K.; Deepak Rajiv, A.; Krishnaswamy, S.

2026-07-07 nephrology 10.64898/2026.07.05.26357308 medRxiv
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Background: Uremic pruritus affects up to 90% of individuals and substantially impairs quality of life, in the group of patients undergoing chronic dialysis. Despite multiple therapeutic options, an optimal and well tolerated treatment remains elusive. Ketotifen, a mast cell stabilizer with antihistaminic properties prevent itch by inhibition of mast cell derived tryptase, which modulates protease-activated receptor-2 (PAR-2) in the cowhage itch pathway. Materials and Methods: In this prospective observational study, 230 chronic dialysis patients were screened, of whom 48 (20.9%) had clinically significant pruritus identified using a structured questionnaire. Twenty-four patients with moderate-to-severe symptoms who were prescribed ketotifen as part of routine clinical care consented to prospective follow-up. Ketotifen was initiated at 1 mg twice daily, with dose escalation to 2 mg twice daily in patients with persistent symptoms according to routine clinical practice. Pruritus severity was assessed using visual (VAS), verbal (VRS), and numerical (NRS) rating scales before and after treatment. Results: After two weeks of initial 1mg therapy, 19 showed significant clinical improvement. Mean scores reduced 77.5 [-&gt;] 27.1 (VAS), 87.5 [-&gt;] 20.8 (VRS), and 74.2 [-&gt;] 25 (NRS) (around 65% reduction with p < 0.001 across all scales). Clinical relief was achieved in 83.3% overall and mild tolerable drowsiness occurred only at the 2mg dose. Conclusion: Ketotifen is a safe, effective and well tolerated option for moderate to severe uremic pruritus in dialysis patients. Larger multicenter studies are warranted to confirm efficacy and optimize dosing.

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Childhood immunisation coverage in rural and a tribal settings in southern India and assessing effect of the Covid19 pandemic

Raju, R.; Ramesh, R. M.; Prasad, S.; Sindhu, K. N.; Kaliappan, S. P.; Aruldas, K.; Muliyil, J.; Moorthy, M.; Kompithra, R. Z.; Ajjampur, S. S. R.

2026-07-27 public and global health 10.64898/2026.07.24.26358371 medRxiv
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Purpose: Childhood immunisation witnessed reduced coverage and delays globally during the Covid19 pandemic. This study aimed to identify gaps in routine childhood immunisation in southern India and the effect of the pandemic in censused rural and tribal populations. Methods: This study was conducted between August and September 2021 in a hard-to-reach tribal block (Jawadhu Hills) and rural (Timiri) block in Tamil Nadu. The proportion of full immunisation coverage (FIC), age-appropriate coverage and vaccination delays were calculated in the pre-pandemic (prior to March 2020) and pandemic (lockdown) period. Results: Among 2746 children (aged <30 months, with immunisation cards available) surveyed in these populations, overall FIC among children between 12-23 months of age was 50.8% (95%CI: 46.6-55.0) in Jawadhu and 83.7%; (81.1-86.2) in Timiri. In Jawadhu, coverage of oral polio vaccine3 (OPV3) decreased from 78.3% (73.4-82.6) pre-pandemic to 70.0% (66.6-73.2) during the pandemic; inactivated polio vaccine2 (IPV2) from 76.9% (72.1-81.2) to 69.1% (65.5-72.4); Pentavalent3 from 78.0% (73.1-82.4) to 70.2% (66.8-73.5); and Measles containing vaccine1 (MCV1) from 74.6% (67.6-80.8) to 56.7% (53.3-60.1). In Timiri, only MCV1 coverage decreased from 92.9% (88.7-95.9) to 85.4% (83.3-87.3). Factors associated with not receiving MCV1 included due date of vaccination falling during the pandemic lock downs, higher birth order, younger and less educated parents, and residing in the tribal block. Conclusion: This study highlighted differences in routine childhood immunisation vaccine coverage and impact of the pandemic in a geographically remote tribal block in contrast to a more accessible, rural block. Resilient health systems are essential to ensure sustainability in gains in vaccination coverage, especially in remote areas, and should be part of pandemic preparedness.

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Anti-Human T-Lymphotropic Virus Type 1 (Htlv-1) Seropositivity In Haematological Malignancies At A Major Clinical Setting In Ghana

Awuku, F.; Omoniyi, P.; Adjei, D. N.; Seshie, M.; Sagoe, K. W. C.; Kuma, A. A. B.-A.

2026-07-10 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.07.07.26357496 medRxiv
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Background Human T-cell lymphotropic virus - 1 (HTLV-1) is the causative agent of Adult T-cell Leukaemia/Lymphoma (ATLL), a malignancy of CD4+ cells, and HTLV-1-associated Myelopathy/Tropical Spastic Paraparesis (HAM/TSP), a demyelinating disease. Globally, 10-20 million people are infected, though most remain asymptomatic and about 5% progress to severe disease. Transmission occurs mainly through breastfeeding, sexual contact, contaminated needles, and blood transfusion. In Ghana, evidence on the role of HTLV-1 in haematological malignancies remains scarce. Methods This was a cross-sectional study involving 200 patients with haematological malignancies (Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia - 4, Acute Myeloid Leukaemia - 6, Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia - 27, Chronic Myeloid Leukaemia - 63, Hodgkin Lymphoma - 21, Multiple Myeloma - 31, Myelodysplasia - 6, Myeloproliferative Neoplasm - 11) at the Haematology Day Care of the Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital. After informed consent was obtained, sera from study participants were tested for anti-HTLV-1 using MP Diagnostics GmbH ELISA immunoassay. Data were analysed using R software version 4.0.2 and SPSS version 31.0.0. Results The study population had a mean age of 49.1{+/-}17.7 years, with majority being females (n=109, 54.5%). Of the 200 samples, 16 (8.0%) were seropositive for HTLV-1, and these were detected in 4 males and 12 females. No statistically significant association was found between HTLV-1 infection and haematological malignancy (exact p = 0.061), sex (p=0.061), and history of blood transfusion (exact p= 1.000). Conclusion The findings show the seroprevalence of HTLV-1 of 8.0% among patients with haematological malignancies. Although there was no probable association between HTLV-1 and haematological malignancies, screening for HTLV-1 in patients with haematological malignancies may help to unravel the exact contribution in these conditions.

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Profile of red blood cell disorders among healthy schoolchildren in the low malaria-endemic region in Indonesia

Pasaribu, A. P.; Nanine, I.; Ainur, F.; Jimanto, V.; Hutagalung, A. P.; Panggalo, L. V.; Devin, D.; Siregar, O. R.; Hasibuan, B. S.; Fahmi, F.; Trianty, L.; Coutrier, F. N.; Sasmono, R. T.; Satyagraha, A. W.

2026-07-21 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.20.26358521 medRxiv
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Red blood cell (RBC) disorders arose as an advantageous evolutionary response to malaria infections. In a heterozygous condition, such as in Southeast Asian Ovalocytosis (SAO), hosts are protected against severe malaria. In malaria-endemic regions, RBC disorders are presumed to be highly prevalent. Tanjung Leidong, a moderately endemic area in North Sumatra (API 1.13 in 2024), lacks comprehensive data on RBC disorder prevalence beyond G6PD deficiency. Therefore, this study aims to characterize the RBC disorders in this region as well as to characterize the anemia status in children living in Tanjung Leidong. Schoolers attending D. I. Panjaitan elementary to high school were recruited and screened for malaria by microscopy and G6PD deficiency using the STANDARD G6PD Assay. The DNA of the participants was also extracted to be genotyped for SAO, Hemoglobin E (HbE), and -thalassemia. Exclusively, G6PD-deficient DNA samples were genotyped further to determine variants. The proportion of G6PD deficiency, SAO, HbE, -thalassemia one-gene deletion, and two-gene deletion were 0.90%, 0.90%, 2.40%, 6.26%, and 0.30%, respectively. Anemia prevalence was approximately 14%, and RBC disorders were observed across children with normal to obese BMI. No malaria infections were detected by microscopy. The predominance of asymptomatic RBC disorders highlights that they are protective against malaria infection, although their protective role against malaria could not be directly assessed in this study. Both nutritional and genetic factors are found to contribute to anemia in this cohort. These findings underscore the importance of integrated screening strategies for RBC disorders and anemia in malaria-endemic settings.

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Guiding the development of climate counterfactuals for health impact attribution studies

Charnley, G. E. C.; Kotz, M.; Kawiecki Peralta, A.; Grayson, K. M.

2026-06-18 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.16.26355779 medRxiv
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Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) methods have become vital for quantifying the influence of anthropogenic forcing on the Earth's systems, including human health. Health impact attribution (HIA) studies seek to disentangle climate-driven health effects from natural variability yet are often constrained by the availability of accessible counterfactual climate scenarios. This tutorial paper presents a flexible, reproducible framework for developing counterfactual climates without reliance on computationally intensive global circulation models. We provide practical, R-based methodologies for constructing both trend-based (temperature and non-temperature) and event-based counterfactual, using a variety of techniques including model residual detrending, data-driven decomposition (e.g., Singular Spectrum Analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition) and stochastic weather generators. The tutorial also explores the incorporation of greenhouse gas concentrations as forcing variables, rather than global mean temperature anomalies. By operationalising these methods through worked examples and an open code repository, this paper aims to build capacity within the HIA community, enhance methodological transparency, and foster interdisciplinary collaboration between climate and health researchers.

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Vaccination Status and Its Association with Complications among the Patients Admitted with Measles in the Dedicated Measles Hospitals, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Goutam, A.; Hasan, A.; Khan, M. A. S.; Mahid, M. A. H.; Masud, S. B.; Babul, H.; Rahman, L.; Siddiqui, A.; Luthfa, S. T.; Tuli, S. N.; Paul, I.; Bari, M. R.; Saleh, A. S. M.; Hawlader, M. D. H.

2026-06-29 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.24.26356486 medRxiv
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Bangladesh is facing a major resurgence of measles, with more than 60,000 suspected cases and over 600 deaths reported between March and May 2026. Despite the growing outbreak, hospital-based evidence in Bangladesh remains limited regarding measles vaccination status and its association with clinical complications. To address this critical gap, our study aimed to assess the vaccination status and its relationship with the development of clinical complications. A total of 260 children admitted to the measles ward were enrolled in this cross-sectional study. They were aged 2-72 months, had clinically confirmed measles, and were admitted to four dedicated measles treatment hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh, between 15 and 25 April 2026. Data on vaccination status, sociodemographic characteristics, feeding practices, Nutritional status, clinical symptoms, and complications were collected through caregiver interviews and hospital records. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) with a corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), and a p-value of <0.05 were considered statistically significant. Among enrolled children, 74.6% were unvaccinated, 18.8% were partially vaccinated, and only 6.5% were fully vaccinated. In the multivariable model, age below 9 months (aOR 0.077, 95% CI 0.025-0.236,p<0.001) was independently associated with lower odds of vaccination, while household income at or above the median (aOR 3.480, 95% CI 1.493-8.110,p=0.004) was associated with higher odds. Complications developed in 31.1% of cases, with respiratory involvement being most common. Absence of exclusive breastfeeding (aOR 2.336, 95% CI 1.027-5.313,p=0.043) and presenting with exactly three symptoms at admission (aOR 3.106, 95% CI 1.274-7.572,p=0.013) were independently associated with complications. Unvaccinated individuals exhibited markedly elevated odds of complications compared to those who were vaccinated (aOR 5.729,95% CI: 2.363-13.889, p<0.001). The overwhelming burden of measles in unvaccinated children, shaped by socioeconomic disadvantage and suboptimal feeding practices, underscores the urgent need to restore immunization coverage and strengthen equitable health services in Bangladesh.

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Natural History and Post-transplant Outcomes Among Patients with Kidney Leukocyte Cell- Derived

Munawar Ali, I. F.; Lopez-Gutierrez, P. A.; Iftikhar, N.; Hanson, V.; Afrin, S.; Saelices Gomez, L.; Garcia, P. R.; Argyropoulos, C. P.

2026-08-03 nephrology 10.64898/2026.07.31.26359278 medRxiv
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Background: ALECT2 is the third most common cause of renal amyloidosis in the United States, with a strong predilection for Hispanic patients in the Southwest. (PMID:24522497) Despite its regional prevalence, the data on the trajectory of kidney function decline and post-transplant outcomes remain poorly characterized. Methods: This is a retrospective study of patients diagnosed with ALECT2 by kidney biopsy at UNM from January 2014 to April 2024. Pre- and post-biopsy eGFR trajectories and post-transplant allograft function were analyzed. Results: 12 patients had pre-biopsy data available, with the mean age at diagnosis 64 SD 12.0 years, 8(67%) were females, and 8 identified as Hispanic. Mean eGFR at diagnosis was 31 (SD 29) indicating advanced kidney disease with 67% diagnosed as CKD stage 4 or 5. Concomitant kidney pathology was identified in 50% with diabetic nephropathy being present in 2/3 of those. A significant change in the eGFR trajectory identified at the time of biopsy through change point analysis [Figures A,C,D] Among four patients who underwent kidney transplantation, allograft eGFR remained stable over more than 60 months of follow-up [Figure D] Conclusion: In this cohort of predominantly Hispanic patients, ALECT2 amyloidosis presented with advanced CKD and accelerated loss of kidney function, which prompted a biopsy that detected the disease. Post- transplant allograft function was well maintained, supporting kidney transplantation as a viable treatment strategy for ALECT2-associated kidney disease.

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Prevalence of Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) among Children and Adolescents (<18 years) in India: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Abu Bashar, M.; Prabhat, ; Khan, I. A.; Begam, N.

2026-08-14 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.12.26360221 medRxiv
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Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become a common metabolic disorder in paediatric age groups and is a major contributor to the burden of health economics. However, there is a lack of comprehensive data on the prevalence of this condition among children. Methods English language literature published from inception until April 2025 was searched from the electronic databases, i.e., PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Embase, and CINAHL. Original data published in any form that reported NAFLD prevalence among children and/or adolescents in India were included. The subgroup analysis of prevalence was done based on the risk category, i.e., average risk group and high risk group (obesity or overweight, metabolic syndrome, etc.). The prevalence estimates were pooled using the random-effects model. Results A total of 11 studies (six in high-risk populations and 5 in the average-risk general population) comprising data from 3512 individuals were found eligible and were included. The overall pooled estimate of NAFLD prevalence among the children and adolescents was 35.4% (95% CI: 19.7% to 52.9%) with very high heterogeneity(I2=99.0%). The pooled prevalence of NAFLD among average/low risk children and adolescents was 10.7% (95%CI: 5.2% to 20.5%) with high heterogeneity across the studies (I2= 96.6%, p=0.001) whereas the pooled prevalence of NAFLD in high risk overweight/obese children and adolescents was found to be 59.7% (95% CI:55.2% to 64.1%) with moderate heterogeneity across the studies (I2=50.90%; H2=2.04; Q (5) = 10.03; p=0.07) Conclusion This systematic review demonstrates that non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) poses a growing health concern among Indian children and adolescents, as 1 out of 3 children/adolescents is suffering from it, with a disproportionately high burden observed in those who are overweight or obese.

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Burden of snakebite envenoming in northern Benin: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study in the Tchaourou District

Honvou, E.; Deha, A. R. E.; Zinsou, J. F.; Logbo, E. P. M. A.; Houeha, F.; Greenberg, M.; Clemens, R.; Adegnika, A. A.; Costa Clemens, S. A.

2026-06-25 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.22.26356298 medRxiv
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Background: SBE is a significant public health problem, yet its incidence and associated disabilities and fatalities have been vastly underestimated. Objective: To estimate the burden of snakebite envenoming in rural Tchaourou, Northern Benin. Methods: A retrospective descriptive and analytical cross-sectional survey was conducted from 2018 to 2023 in the Tchaourou district. Data were collected through household interviews among participants of the ENABLE Lassa research program. Statistical analyses included incidence-rate calculations and multivariable logistic regression. Results: Among 261 household respondents, 74 reported snakebites, yielding an incidence of 399 per 100,000 person-years [95% CI 314-501]. These 74 victims had a median age of 25.5 years and a male/female distribution of 55%:45% (41:33). Of the 74 victims, 32 (43%) reported that snakebites occurred while farming; and snakebites were most frequent during the rainy season (June and July) when farming activity was at its most intense. The most frequently bitten of the body was the foot or leg (74%), and the most reported symptoms included local swelling (78%), pain (78%), bleeding (66%), and headache (64%). The complications were reported by 22/74 (30%) victims. The risk of a snakebite complication was 3.0 times higher for female (14/33) than male victims (8/41; p=.032) and appeared to be higher when the first point of care was a traditional healer (12/44) or treatment at home (10/24) rather than at a health centre (0/6). Ultimately, only 18/74 (24%) victims attended a health centre. Conclusion: Snakebite envenoming poses a significant health problem in Benin. Comprehensive strategies involving training of healthcare providers, community engagement, and improved immediate access to health centres should reduce morbidity.

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Safety and immunogenicity of recombinant hepatitis E vaccine in healthy pregnant women between 14 and 34 weeks of gestation and non-pregnant women of reproductive age: Protocol for a Phase II, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled trial

Song, K. R.; Nisar, I.; Lee, J.; Yang, L.; Kim, D. R.; Riskiana, A.; Telele, N. F.; Hotwani, A. F.; Ansari, N.; Nausheen, S.; Sheikh, L.; Chen, W.; Yu, X.; Wang, R.; Blunt, M.; Talaat, K. R.; Kmush, B.; Jehan, F.; Lynch, J. A.

2026-08-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.07.26359927 medRxiv
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Introduction Hepatitis E virus (HEV) in pregnancy is associated with high maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality. The safety and efficacy of the recombinant protein HEV vaccine (HEV239, Hecolin) have been established in non-pregnant adult populations but there is limited information among pregnant women. This trial has two co-primary objectives: 1) to assess pregnancy-related and/or serious safety events among pregnant women between 14 and 34 weeks of gestation receiving two Hecolin doses four weeks apart compared to placebo recipients, and 2) to determine immune non-inferiority of pregnant recipients of two Hecolin doses four weeks apart compared to non-pregnant women. Methods and Analysis This is a multi-site, randomized, observer-blinded, placebo-controlled vaccine safety and immunogenicity trial in pregnant women and non-pregnant women of reproductive age in Karachi, Pakistan. A total of 2,358 healthy women will be enrolled, including 2,208 pregnant women between 14 and 34 weeks of gestation, who will be randomized in a 1:1 ratio (stratified by gestational age, 14-27 and 28-34 weeks) to receive either Hecolin or a normal saline placebo in two doses administered 1 month apart during pregnancy and a third dose administered postpartum, approximately 5 months after the second dose. A third arm of 150 non-pregnant women aged 16-45 years will receive Hecolin on 0, 1, and 6 months. The co-primary outcomes will be (i) the proportion of pregnancy-related AESIs and SAEs in pregnant participants from the first dose until the end of study follow-up, compared with placebo, and (ii) the geometric mean concentration (GMC) of anti-HEV IgG at four weeks after the second dose, comparing pregnant vaccine recipients with non-pregnant vaccine recipients (non-inferiority margin of 0.67 for the GMC ratio). Immunogenicity will be evaluated in a pre-specified subset of 300 participants receiving Hecolin, including 150 pregnant participants and 150 non-pregnant participants. Secondary outcomes will include maternal, neonatal, and infant safety outcomes, as well as immunogenicity according to the number of Hecolin doses received and the trimester of vaccination. Ethics and Dissemination The trial was approved by the National Bioethics Committee (NBC) of Pakistan (Reference number: 4-87/NBC-910), the institutional Ethics Review Committee (ERC) of the Aga Khan University (Reference number: 8298), and the Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the International Vaccine Institute (IVI) (Reference number: 2022-007). All participants will provide written informed consent in accordance with Good Clinical Practice. The results will be submitted to World Health Organization (WHO) Strategic Advisory Group of Experts in Immunization (SAGE), and disseminated through conference presentations, and peer-reviewed publications.

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Mortality risk and burden associated with hydroclimate whiplash in the United States

Wang, P.; Ma, Y.; Stowell, J. D.; Abadi, A. M.

2026-08-21 occupational and environmental health 10.64898/2026.08.18.26360736 medRxiv
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Hydroclimate whiplash, defined as the rapid transition between unusually wet and dry conditions, is expected to intensify under climate change, yet its population health impacts remain largely unknown. Here we quantified the association between hydroclimate whiplash and mortality across the contiguous United States from 2003 to 2023 using monthly county-level mortality records, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index data, and two-stage time-series models. We identified overall and direction-specific dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry whiplash events at seasonal and sub-annual timescales and across 5-, 10-, and 20-year recurrence intervals. More severe whiplash events were associated with higher all-cause mortality risk; 5-, 10-, and 20-year sub-annual overall whiplash events increased mortality risk over five months by 3.4%, 4.5%, and 5.7%, respectively. Elevated risks were observed across cause-specific mortality outcomes, with the strongest association for infectious diseases. We estimated that 103,471 deaths were attributable to overall whiplash during the study period. These findings identify hydroclimate whiplash as an emerging climate-related public health threat and suggest that adaptation strategies focused on single hazards may underestimate the health burden of rapid, sequential hydroclimatic extremes.

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Thermal variability and the geography of optimal temperature for child survival: childhood respiratory-infection mortality in 171 countries: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 and the C-LSAT high-resolution climate dataset

Li, D.; Liu, J.; Sun, S.; Chen, H.; Shen, W.; Wang, X.; Shen, C.

2026-09-02 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361864 medRxiv
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Background In adults, cold-attributable mortality exceeds heat-attributable mortality roughly 17-fold. Child-specific evidence has begun to emerge only recently - a nationwide Brazilian case-crossover study located the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) for under-five deaths, and a 56-country survey-based analysis linked monthly temperature anomalies to under-five mortality - but no multi-country, climate-zone-resolved estimate of the childhood respiratory-infection MMT exists, and whether temperature variability is independently associated with childhood respiratory mortality at the global scale is unknown. We quantified both. Methods We combined Global Burden of Disease 2023 mortality estimates, lower respiratory infection (LRI) deaths at ages 0-19 years and asthma deaths at ages 0-24 years, 171 countries, 1990-2023 - with 0.5 deg monthly land temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) fields from C-LSAT/C-LDTR (1901-2023). Four exposure dimensions (annual mean, DTR, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered two-way fixed-effects models with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. A quadratic term in mean temperature located the MMT, with percentile confidence intervals from a 300-replication country-cluster bootstrap. Future-exposure leads, country-level detrending, and permutation tests assessed contemporaneous causality, applied to both the linear coefficients and the quadratic term generating the MMT; national pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV3) coverage and ambient PM2.5 exposure series were added as time-varying mechanistic covariates. Results The childhood LRI MMT was 17.1 C (95% CI 14.7-19.8), the 36th percentile of the annual-temperature distribution; zone estimates were 24.7 C in tropical and 15.8 C in subtropical countries, with weak temperate and no subarctic identification. The quadratic term underpinning the MMT, however, failed both falsification checks - future temperatures reproduced the U-shape and country-level detrending erased it - so these MMT values describe a trend-level geographic pattern of the annual construct rather than a contemporaneous dose-response. Interannual temperature variability was positively associated with LRI (+0.278, 95% CI 0.102-0.454; p = 0.002) and asthma mortality (+0.836, 95% CI 0.447-1.226; p = 2.6 x 10^-5) per 1 C, but future-exposure models returned nearly identical significant coefficients and detrending erased significance, supporting only a trend-level association; adjustment for national PCV3 coverage and PM2.5 exposure left these estimates essentially unchanged. Annual mean temperature was likewise inversely associated with both outcomes at the trend level; DTR and seasonal amplitude showed no independent within-country effects. Conclusions This study provides the first multi-country, climate-zone-resolved geography of the optimal temperature for childhood respiratory survival, spanning 171 countries; because the underlying quadratic association is trend-level, the estimates are directional. The observed variability-mortality associations are trend-level signals rather than contemporaneous causal evidence; daily-scale, child-specific designs are required to determine whether short-term thermal variability affects paediatric respiratory mortality.

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Warming, thermal variability, and the 96% decline in childhood respiratory-infection mortality in China: a national time-series analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and the C-LSAT high-resolution climate dataset

Li, D.; Miao, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Chen, H.; Wang, X.; Shen, C.

2026-09-02 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361879 medRxiv
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Background Childhood respiratory mortality in China has fallen by over 90% in three decades alongside sustained national warming, yet national long-run evidence on temperature and child respiratory mortality is lacking. Methods We linked Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 mortality estimates for China - lower respiratory infections (LRI), ages 0-19, and asthma, ages 0-24, 1990-2021 - with C-LSAT 0.5 deg gridded temperature data (1990-2019), aggregated nationally and to five climate zones. Four annual indicators (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, seasonal amplitude, interannual variability) entered regressions of log mortality rates with Newey-West standard errors. A bootstrapped (500 resamples) quadratic model probed the minimum mortality temperature (MMT), with PM2.5-adjusted analyses and future-exposure, permutation, and detrended falsification tests. Results LRI deaths fell by 96.3% (330,194 in 1990 to 12,098 in 2021; 95% uncertainty interval 9,669-14,891) and asthma deaths by 94.9% (3,287 to 167), while mean temperature rose 0.364 deg C per decade and diurnal temperature range narrowed 0.092 deg C per decade. Baseline coefficients were large (mean temperature -1.696, SE 0.174; diurnal temperature range +2.408, SE 0.336; seasonal amplitude -0.162, SE 0.082; interannual variability +2.924, SE 1.514, per 1 deg C in log rate), but the future-exposure test failed and detrending nullified every coefficient: the associations are trend-level, and short-cycle causal effects are not identifiable. Nor was the national MMT identifiable - observed temperature support spans only 6.66-8.13 deg C, and the nominal turning point of 35.84 deg C is an extrapolation artifact (quadratic term p = 0.963). Within the observed range, warming and declining mortality moved in the same direction. Conclusions The 96% decline in childhood respiratory mortality cannot be attributed to warming. China sits on the low-temperature side of the optimum, and the marginal direction of future warming requires stronger designs to establish. The falsification framework offers a discipline for climate-health inference in China.

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Lassa fever epidemiology and predictors of mortality in Ebonyi State, Nigeria - A five-year retrospective analysis from 2019 to 2023

Nwojiji, E. C.; Nwambeke, N. O.; Shih, P.-W.; Chukwunenye, C. U.; Odeh, E. C.; Ekuma, M. I.; Azuogu, B.; Iroezindu, M. O.; Liesenborghs, L.; Dijck, C. V.

2026-07-06 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.02.26357189 medRxiv
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Lassa fever (LF) is a viral disease that is widespread throughout West Africa, with significant global health consequences. Nigeria bears the highest burden (1309 confirmed cases in 2024) of LF among all endemic countries. Within Nigeria, Ebonyi State bears a high burden of cases. Clinical observations suggest that there may be an increase in the geographic spread and case fatality rate of LF across the State. Ebonyi State case-based data on confirmed cases from 2019 to 2023 collated on the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC) Surveillance, Outbreak Response Management and Analysis System (SORMAS) platform were analyzed. Descriptive statistics, spatial distribution and time series analysis were performed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors of LF mortality and factors associated with PCR positivity. A total of 1,624 suspected cases were reported, 1,343 and 273 were laboratory negative and positive respectively, while 8 probable cases were reported. The yearly number of cases remained stable throughout the study period. Out of the 273 confirmed, 107 died from LF, resulting in a case fatality rate (CFR) of 39.2%. CFR increased non-significantly over time, ranging from 28.6% to 55.8%. Variations in geographic distribution were observed; in 2019 ten local government areas (LGAs) were affected compared to twelve in 2020. A higher incidence was observed between January and March annually. Age above 44 years, bleeding and seizures were significant predictors of mortality. Lower incidence of cases was consistently reported in the Southern LGAs. PCR positivity was associated with individuals who reside in Ebonyi LGA and who have had contact with confirmed cases. The increase in CFR and identification of high-burden areas will help shape policies, allocate resources and provide actionable intervention strategies to combat LF in the State.

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Prevalence of Dengue and Chikungunya in the Horn of Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Osman, A. M.; Mwenya, M.; Ochieng, F.; Akengo, H.; Lutomiah, J.; Limbaso, K.; Hassan-Kadle, A. A.; Odhiambo, F. O.; Osman, M. M.; Bett, B.

2026-08-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.03.26359549 medRxiv
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Background: Dengue virus (DENV) and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) are important mosquito-borne arboviruses with expanding global distributions. Although recurrent outbreaks have occurred in the Horn of Africa since the early 2000s, their epidemiology and burden remain poorly characterized. This systematic review and meta-analysis estimated the prevalence of DENV and CHIKV, their distribution by country, diagnostic methods, circulating DENV serotypes, and mosquito vectors. Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, SpringerLink, Nature Portfolio, and Google Scholar were searched for studies published up to October 2025. Eligible studies reported DENV and/or CHIKV infections in humans or mosquitoes in Kenya, Ethiopia, or Somalia. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed, with subgroup analyses by country, population, setting, and diagnostic method. Results: Of 3,351 records, 65 studies met the inclusion criteria, most from Kenya (63.1%), followed by Ethiopia (30.8%) and Somalia (6.1%). Pooled DENV prevalence was 20% for IgG, 10% for IgM, 6% for NS1, and 4% by PCR. Corresponding CHIKV prevalence was 5% for IgG, 8% for IgM, and 4% by PCR. Significant differences between countries were observed for DENV NS1 (p<0.0001) and PCR-confirmed infections (p=0.01). DENV prevalence was highest in the general population (16%) compared with febrile patients (6%) and mosquito vectors (1%) (p=0.033), whereas CHIKV prevalence was highest in rural settings (15%) (p=0.0002). All four DENV serotypes circulated in Kenya and Ethiopia, while DENV-2 and DENV-3 were reported in Somalia. Aedes aegypti was the predominant vector, reported in 92.3% of vector studies. Conclusions: DENV and CHIKV are important and likely underrecognized arboviral threats to global public health and in the Horn of Africa, with evidence of ongoing transmission and widespread exposure. Strengthened surveillance, diagnostic capacity, vector control, and regional collaboration are needed to mitigate their growing public health impact.

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Sex-Specific TMPRSS2 Response and Reduced Peripheral RNA Concentration Following AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccination in Nigeria.

Ekprikpo, E. S.; Ken-Ezihuo, S. U.; Echonwere-Uwikor, B. E.; Jeremiah, Z. A.

2026-06-23 hematology 10.64898/2026.06.21.26356163 medRxiv
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Background: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 remains a cornerstone COVID-19 vaccine in sub-Saharan Africa, yet population-specific molecular responses are understudied. We examined peripheral blood ACE2 and TMPRSS2 expression, total RNA concentration, and coagulation indices in Nigerians >=6 months post-vaccination. Methods: In a case-control study in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, 51 ChAdOx1-vaccinated adults and 51 age/sex-matched unvaccinated controls provided venous blood for RNA extraction, qRT-PCR, and coagulation assays. Multivariable linear models assessed effects of vaccination, sex, and age on molecular parameters. Results: Vaccinated participants had 37% lower total RNA concentration than controls (4.02 +/- 0.09 vs 6.38 +/- 0.14 ng/uL, p<0.0001). ACE2 and TMPRSS2 expression did not differ by vaccination status overall. However, TMPRSS2 showed a significant sex-by-treatment interaction (p=0.011): vaccinated females had higher expression than vaccinated males. GAPDH expression varied by vaccination status and showed a three-way interaction with sex and age (p=0.027). Coagulation indices were unchanged. Conclusions: At >=6 months post-ChAdOx1, Nigerians show reduced peripheral blood RNA without sustained ACE2/TMPRSS2 upregulation. The sex-specific TMPRSS2 pattern suggests hormone and vaccine interactions previously unreported in African cohorts and highlights the need for sex-disaggregated molecular surveillance. Region-specific reference gene validation is recommended for Nigerian transcriptomic studies.

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Hepatitis B virus Seroprevalence Among Heterosexual Couples Attending Antenatal Care at Gulu Regional Referral Hospital, Uganda

Otim, P.; Bongomin, F.; Ochola, E.

2026-08-05 public and global health 10.64898/2026.08.04.26359659 medRxiv
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Background Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a global health concern and the leading cause of chronic liver disease, including liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The Uganda Ministry of health recommends screening of HBV for all pregnant mothers during antenatal care (ANC). However, limited literature exists regarding couple testing and outcomes, particularly in Northern Uganda. Objective We determined HBV seroprevalence and associated factors among pregnant women and their partner attending ANC clinic of Gulu Regional Referral hospital (GRRH), Gulu, Uganda. Methods Between 1st December 2023 and 28th February 2024, a hospital-based, cross-sectional study was conducted among eligible pregnant women and their male partners attending ANC of GRRH, Gulu, Uganda. Following systematic random sampling, pretested questionnaire was administered by an interviewer. Blood samples were collected for HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) rapid test, which was performed according to manufacturers instructions. Qualitative data was analysed using logistic regression in STATA version 15 SE. P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results A total of 242 couple pairs were enrolled. Overall, 8.3% (n=40) participants were seropositive for HBsAg; Male partners [M] (10.7%, n=26) and pregnant women [F] (5.8%, n=14). Sero-concordance (M negative [-ve] and F [-ve]; 83.5%, n=202), (M positive [+ve] and F [+ve]; 4.1%, n=10) and sero-discordance (M +ve and F -ve; 8.7%, n=21), (M -ve and F +ve; 3.7%, n=9). Factors associated with positive HBsAg were, being male (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.45, 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.15 - 5.21, p=0.02), daily alcohol consumption (aOR: 4.73, 95% CI: 1.40 -16.04, p=0.01), and no prior vaccination against HBV (aOR: 12.01, 95% CI: 4.07 - 35.65, p<0.001). Conclusion There is a high HBsAg seropositivity rate, particularly among male partners of pregnant women. There is an urgent need to have couples who come for ANC to be screened for HBV and to strengthen and sensitise young people for premarital HBV screening.

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Prevalence and associated factors of chronic kidney disease among adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Amare, K. A.; Berhe, G. B.; Yalew, G. T.

2026-07-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.07.07.26357494 medRxiv
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Abstract Introduction Chronic kidney disease (CKD) in adult patients with type 2 diabetus mellitus (T2DM) is a serious public health challenge and continues to be a major source of morbidity and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The burden of CKD among T2DM patients in SSA has been documented in several studies, but the results remain heterogeneous, and there is limited comprehensive data on its overall prevalence and factors associated with the diseases. Therefore, this study aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of CKD and assess its associated factors among adult patients with T2DM in SSA. Methods This systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted and reported according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines, and the study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD420261411707). A comprehensive search of relevant studies was conducted from PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE published between January 2000 and December 2025 in SSA. Data were analyzed using Stata version 17. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of CKD among adults with T2DM patients. Heterogeneity was assessed using Cochranes Q and I{superscript 2} statistics with visual inspection through forest and Galbraith plots. Publication bias was evaluated using a funnel plot and Eggers test. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were also performed. Results Out of the 3702 study participants from 16 included studies, the estimated pooled prevalence of CKD among adult T2DM patients in SSA was 35.8% (95% CI: 27.1-44.4), indicating significant heterogeneity (I{superscript 2}=97.25%, p<0.001) across the studies. Subgroup analyses on the pooled prevalence of CKD on the basis of different diagnostic criteria were conducted. Modification of diet in renal disease (MDRD) reported a prevalence of 34% (26, 43), the chronic kidney diseases epidemiology collaboration (CKD-EPI) reported a prevalence of 39% (21, 57), and the Cockcroft-Gault (CG) method reported a prevalence of 34% (12, 56). In addition, older age (OR = 2.27, 95% CI: 1.19-4.33) and longer diabetes duration (OR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.07-3.40) were factors significantly associated with the prevalence of CKD. Conclusion The prevalence of CKD in SSA was high, affecting nearly one in three adults with T2DM patients. In addition, factors such as older age and longer diabetes duration significantly contributed to the association with CKD. To lessen this issue, focused public health actions are strongly advised, such as screening, education, and awareness campaigns. Systematic review registrations PROSPERO (2026: CRD420261411707).

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From Polio to COVID-19: Factors Sustaining Community Influencer Motivation in the CORE Group Partners Project's Social Mobilization Initiatives for Vaccination in India

Schurmann, A.; Kumar Das, A.; Sinha, S.; Mishra, P.; Yadav, B.; Ratna, P.; Awale, J.; Choudhary, M.; Vassos Stamidis, K.; Tilahun, H.; Perry, H.

2026-07-31 public and global health 10.64898/2026.07.22.26358734 medRxiv
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Introduction: Engaging Community Influencers (CIs) was a key strategy for polio eradication in India, also contributing to routine vaccination and COVID-19 vaccination. CIs were high status individuals selected for their pre-existing reach into vaccine-hesitant communities. This paper describes the factors that kept the CIs engaged over time. The findings add to our understanding of what drives CHW motivation. Methods: We performed a thematic analysis of 65 in-depth interviews conducted across six study districts of Uttar Pradesh, involving 36 CIs, 18 CGPP field staff, nine project managers and two representatives from other stakeholders. Findings: The most important motivational factors that emerged from the research were improved social status, altruism, and effective working relationships. The inputs required to foster these were information support; providing respect and visibility; and fostering robust working relationships between program staff, CIs, CHWs, and government functionaries. Conclusions: CIs' engagement in the program maintained and bolstered their pre-existing status. Deploying and sustaining this cadre requires a strategic approach to maintaining motivation over time. Providing respect and visibility and maintaining effective working relationships is key to sustaining the CIs' motivation.